Wait out LLM outages with backoff (L5: outages delay, never fail)

A 502, 503 or 504 from the LiteLLM proxy, or a dropped connection, is
retried after 5, 15 and 45 seconds before the call fails. Twice on
2026-10-07 a short burst of 502s stopped work outright: the integration
tier at 16:39 and an e2e conversation at 20:43, where the item waited on
the operator after one refused call.

Not retried: a 500 (it may be the request's fault), a timeout (it already
had its request_timeout_s), or a budget refusal. Rate limits keep their
single 20-second retry. The time spent waiting is reported with the rate
limit's (last_rate_limit_wait_s), so it isn't counted as the model's.

Tests: an outage waited out, one that outlasts the backoff, a dropped
connection, a 500 and a timeout not retried, a budget refusal not waited
on. The offline agent in test_agent_build skips the backoff (its proxy
doesn't exist).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PPQ14L3LikyefCMFBqEbKE

nisse-dev/tests/test_agent_build.py

@@ -143,6 +143,9 @@ class FakeTransport:
 def build_offline(tmp_path: Path, origin: Path, monkeypatch: Any) -> Any:
     """Assemble the real graph with only the network boundaries faked."""
     config = config_for(tmp_path)
+    # The proxy here doesn't exist: a call to it fails at once rather than
+    # waiting out an outage's backoff (L5).
+    monkeypatch.setattr("nisse_dev.llm.OUTAGE_BACKOFF_S", ())
 
     monkeypatch.setattr(
         "nisse_dev.agent.GiteaClient.whoami", lambda self: "nisse-dev-testing"